JP Morgan has painted a rosy view of the UK economy, predicting a fall in inflation and growing confidence among UK consumers.

Mike Bell, JP Morgan global market strategist, revealed his predictions as the firm released it’s quarterly Guide to the Markets in London yesterday.  

After a year of smooth sailing, 2018 experienced “a somewhat turbulent start,” JP Morgan says, but the volatility “cannot be attributed to a deterioration in the economic data.”

Mr Bell said: "It's not implausible that we could see UK inflation back at or even below target by the end of the year.

"UK consumer confidence improvements could have quite some way to go.”

He added: "That pessimistic view of the UK high street and consumption, which is the reason why UK growth has been in the doldrums for the last 18 months - we could be at the nadir of that."

The outlook echoes ONS findings, released this week, which revealed a buoyant labour market, with UK unemployment at its lowest level for 43 years.

Senior ONS statistician Matt Hughes said: “The labour market continues to be strong and for the first time in almost a year, earnings have grown slightly after inflation has been taken into account.

“Employment rose again in the three months to February, to reach its highest ever rate since records began. The unemployment rate fell, too, and is at its lowest since 1975.”

Globally, JP Morgan is less concerned about economic protectionism than the market indicates.

Commenting on the ongoing US/China trade war Mr Bell: "We think this is more a trade skirmish than a full-blown trade war.” 

He added: “There's an awful lot of talk but not a lot of damage.

"Increased tariffs would hit US goods and US consumption and I don't think that's the goal of the [US] Administration. 

"The goal is to get China to import more and to open up on services and protect intellectual property."