The latest official wage growth figures - published today by the ONS - mean the State Pension should rise to £11,501 in April 2024, a 8.5% rise from £10,600 this year.

It would mean a weekly rise in the new State Pension from £203.85 to £221.17.

Meanwhile, the old state pension will increase from £156.20 per week to £169.50 per week, assuming today’s earnings growth figure is used for the Triple Lock.

Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown said: “We always thought inflation would be the key factor when it came to the Triple Lock, but soaring wages look set to outstrip it, with annual wage growth of 8.5%.”

She said inflation has proved unpredictable and could rise again ahead of next month, but with it currently standing at 6.8%, “it would need to be a truly enormous rise to outstrip what we are seeing here.”

She said that such an increase will continue to be a headache for government which needs to battle the ever-spiralling cost of the State Pension bill.

Ms Morrissey added: “A review of the long-term direction of the State Pension and the Triple Lock’s role should be a priority for whoever wins the next election.”

The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently refused to be drawn as to whether he would support the Triple Lock long term, though as a general election draws ever closer it would be a difficult pledge to step back from.

Had the new State Pension increased in line with either inflation or wages since 2011, it would be worth around £180 per week today – meaning the Triple Lock policy has added an extra £11bn a year to public spending, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Tom Selby, head of retirement policy at AJ Bell, said: “The protection provided by the Triple Lock is extremely valuable. Had the new state pension been linked to the highest of average earnings and inflation – rather than having a 2.5% underpin – it would be worth around £180 a year rather than over £200 a year today.”

He predicted that by 2050, the Triple Lock policy could see state pension spending rise by anything between £5bn and £45bn a year in today’s terms.

Steve Webb, partner at LCP and former Pensions Minister said: “In terms of the Triple Lock policy, with a general election in the offing it seems quite inconceivable that the Government would choose to break the Triple Lock promise for a second time in three years. Such a decision would be like aiming a laser-guided missile at the core of Conservative support and could fatally undermine the party’s electoral prospects.”