UK incomes up but EU Referendum fears grow - study
Households are worried about financial fragility and external shocks despite a £95 increase in monthly disposable income from £905 to £1,000 in the last quarter, according to a study by Scottish Friendly.
The increase has particularly benefited part-time workers following the introduction of the National Living Wage and low inflation but there are now concerns that the EU Referendum could lead to rising prices, job losses or changes to labour market protections.
The latest Disposable Income Index (DII) published today by savings and ISA provider Scottish Friendly has revealed that nearly half (45.2%) of UK households are worried about the impact of the EU Referendum on the ‘pound in their pockets.’
The quarterly report, compiled with think-tank the Social Market Foundation, reveals a small improvement overall (from £905 to £1000) in disposable income over the last quarter,bolstered by continued low rates of inflation, the introduction of the National Living Wage and moderate pay growth across the private sector.
Those in part-time work in particular seem to have benefitted from the introduction of the National Living Wage at the start of April 2016.
However, some groups find themselves more squeezed than others. Those aged 35-44 years have just £825 left each month after buying daily necessities, just less than the £831 available to 25-34 year olds and below the national median of £1,000. Those in work continue to find themselves with less disposable income than those in retirement, with the average retiree having a higher monthly disposable income of £1,585.
This disparity in favour of the older generation is primarily attributable to them being less encumbered by the burden of housing costs, the study found.
The median 25-34 year old spends £836 on housing costs each month with £626 going on rent or mortgage payments alone. By contrast the average over 55 year old pays just £302 on housing costs with a median spend on rent or mortgage costs of zero. This combined with the trend for older people to work longer, relatively generous private pension provisions and the fact that younger generations have seen slower pay growth compared to previous generations means that older households are, on average, significantly better off.
Despite improvements in the headline figures of disposable income many households remain pessimistic about their financial prospects and are worried about unexpected financial or economic shocks. Only a third of households (34.0%) believe they will be better off financially in 12 months’ time. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter (24.4%) believe that things will get worse for them financially.
The looming EU Referendum appears to be a worry. Half of households (51.6%) are concerned about the outcome of the vote and 45.2% are anxious about how leaving the EU would affect their family financially. The main reason cited is the possibility that a Brexit may cause prices to rise (40.3%), lead to job losses (28.6%) or to changes in labour market protections like paid holiday or maternity leave (19.1%).
Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “Uncertainty caused by the forthcoming EU referendum is leaving many UK families feeling concerned. The possibility that prices may rise that jobs could be lost or that rules around maternity leave or paid holiday may change are clearly important points affecting many people considering the impact of the EU referendum on the pound in their pocket.”
The Scottish Friendly Disposable Income Index is based on a quarterly online nationally-representative survey of 2,000 UK adults, carried out by 3Gem. Survey data was collected over the course of May 2016.