Emerging markets will be engine for world growth
Katie Koch, managing director of the Investment Management Division in the Office of the Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, kicked off the Morningstar London Investment Conference 2012 with a prediction that emerging markets would be the main engine for world growth over the next decade.
Ms Koch said valuations in emerging markets were looking attractive and investors ignoring emerging markets could potentially fail to capture world growth over the next 10 years.
Speaking at the IFP-supported event, Ms Koch said growth in countries such as India and Nigeria could dwarf that in Europe. She forecast that no European country would be among the world top 10 for growth over the next 10 years. UK growth would be low in comparison with other world economies and investors had to take this into account when looking at asset allocation.
In a keynote session to launch the event Ms Koch talked about how it was: "Time to Redefine Emerging Markets."
The global economy has transformed dramatically over the past ten years, she said. The last decade has become synonymous with the remarkable rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs), as well as some other countries, and their influence on the world economy.
At Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) there are eight countries that the company now refers to as ‘Growth Markets’ because "we believe their current size and macroeconomic conditions offer the potential for transformational growth in the coming decades."
The Growth markets include each of the BRIC countries as well as the four largest ‘ Next-11’ (N-11) countries: Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia. These are the countries that Goldman believe are the most likely to experience rising productivity coupled with favourable demographics, and therefore a faster growth rate that the world average going forward.
Ms Koch said her view was that growth markets around the world would provide 60 per cent of global growth over the next 10 years.
The two-day annual Morningstar Investment Conference, now in its sixth year, attract a wealth of top fund managers and investment speakers from around the world. This year's event has attracted 440 delegates, a record number. The event is support by the IFP and Nick Cann, IFP chief executive, will be taking part in a debate tomorrow (Weds).