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Friday, 26 October 2012 09:26
Firms sceptical about impact of latest GDP figures
Financial services firms have responded negatively to yesterday's GDP figures which showed Britain is out of a recession.
The figures from the Office for National Statistics showed growth of one per cent in Q3 2012.
Tom Elliott, global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, a sponsor of the Institute of Financial Planning, said: "The one per cent third quarter GDP growth number translates into an eye-watering four per cent at an annualised rate. At first glance, the second recession since 2008 ended with a dramatic recovery in the late summer.
"However, there are many qualifications that one must apply to the data. The combined effect of which suggests we ended the recession not with a bang but, if adjusted, with a whimper."
These qualifications included the Queen's jubilee holiday and one-off contributions from the Olympics.
Andy Brown, investment director at Prudential's portfolio management group which is also an IFP sponsor, said the news would take a while to sink in with investors.
"Investor sentiment reacts to good news like this much more slowly than it does to bad news, such as economic signs of a downturn. We're in a trendless but volatile period so celebration at this point may be an overreaction."
Rupert Watson, head of asset allocation at Skandia, was particularly sceptical and questioned the validity of the surveys.
He said: "It's been quite a long time since the UK's GDP numbers have accurately reflected what's really going on in the economy.
"These surveys suggest that the economy has been growing at a very slow rate for the past four quarters. It's been painfully slow but not recessionary. We expect a modest pick up over the next few quarters but will be looking at the PMIs and not the GDP numbers for confirmation."
The figures from the Office for National Statistics showed growth of one per cent in Q3 2012.
Tom Elliott, global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, a sponsor of the Institute of Financial Planning, said: "The one per cent third quarter GDP growth number translates into an eye-watering four per cent at an annualised rate. At first glance, the second recession since 2008 ended with a dramatic recovery in the late summer.
"However, there are many qualifications that one must apply to the data. The combined effect of which suggests we ended the recession not with a bang but, if adjusted, with a whimper."
These qualifications included the Queen's jubilee holiday and one-off contributions from the Olympics.
Andy Brown, investment director at Prudential's portfolio management group which is also an IFP sponsor, said the news would take a while to sink in with investors.
"Investor sentiment reacts to good news like this much more slowly than it does to bad news, such as economic signs of a downturn. We're in a trendless but volatile period so celebration at this point may be an overreaction."
Rupert Watson, head of asset allocation at Skandia, was particularly sceptical and questioned the validity of the surveys.
He said: "It's been quite a long time since the UK's GDP numbers have accurately reflected what's really going on in the economy.
"These surveys suggest that the economy has been growing at a very slow rate for the past four quarters. It's been painfully slow but not recessionary. We expect a modest pick up over the next few quarters but will be looking at the PMIs and not the GDP numbers for confirmation."
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