Bank holds base rate at 0.5% despite rise threat
The Bank of England's Money Policy Committee voted 8-1 today to keep its Bank Rate unchanged today at half a per cent despite some experts saying a rise may be on the way.
The committee also voted unanimously to maintain the asset purchase programme at £375bn and to reinvest the £6.3bn of cashflows associated with the redemption of the December 2015 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility.
The Bank noted that 12 month CPI inflation in September stood at -0.1%, slightly over 2 percentage points below the inflation target. This has prompted an exchange of letters between Governor Mark Carney and Chancellor George Osborne. The Bank said that lower inflation was mostly due to falls in energy, food and other imported goods prices with some impact from subdued domestic cost growth.
The Bank said that the low inflation figures and the outlook for inflation did not affect its target of a 2% inflation target over the longer term. The MPC said it would set monetary policy to "ensure that growth is sufficient to absorb remaining spare capacity in a manner that returns inflation to the target in around two years and keeps it there in the absence of further shocks."
The Bank added: "Domestic momentum remains resilient. Consumer confidence is firm, real income growth this year is expected to be the strongest since the crisis, and investment intentions remain robust. As a result, domestic demand growth has been solid despite the fiscal consolidation.
"Although it has moderated, growth is projected to pick up a little towards the middle of next year, as a tighter labour market and stronger productivity support real incomes and consumption, and as accommodative credit conditions encourage strong investment and a pickup in the housing market. The Committee judges the risks to domestic demand to be broadly balanced."
"With inflation below the target, and the likelihood that at least some spare capacity remains in the economy, the MPC intends to set monetary policy so as to ensure that growth is sufficient to absorb any remaining underutilised resources. That will support domestic cost growth and is necessary to ensure that inflation is on track to return sustainably to the 2% target rate within two years."
The base rate has seen no change for over six years. Some experts have forecast a rise over the next six months with Governor Mark Carney hinting recently that the era of low interest rates may be coming to a close.
In its statement today, the MPC commented: "All members agree that, given the likely persistence of the headwinds weighing on the economy, when Bank Rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so more gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles. This guidance is an expectation, not a promise. The actual path Bank Rate will follow over the next few years will depend on the economic circumstances.