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Bank of England says no to 0.25% rate cut
The Bank of England's Money Policy Committee voted to keep its Bank Rate unchanged today at 0.5% - despite intense speculation it was to drop to 0.25%.
The decision extends the record freeze in the rate beyond seven years. The asset purchase programme was also maintained by the bank at £375bn.
The full statement from the Bank of England is below.
#BankRate maintained at 0.5% and Asset Purchase Programme at £375bn. The MPC voted 8-1 on #BankRate and unanimously on the APP.
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) July 14, 2016
Monetary policy summary and minutes of the MPC meeting ending on 13 July 2016 https://t.co/KxIXEgjl8c #BankRate pic.twitter.com/XZlgUZIV0c
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) July 14, 2016
Reaction
Yvonne Braun, director of long-term savings and protection policy at the Association of British Insurers, said: “Savers and customers considering buying an annuity will welcome the decision by the Bank of England not to further ease monetary policy today.
"Sustained quantitative easing combined with continued low interest rates is one of the main factors keeping annuity rates low and further action by the Bank of England could have added to the downward pressure.”
Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: “The decision by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee not to cut the base interest rate beyond its already historic low will come as scant relief for cash savers.
"Savers have been waiting patiently for rates to go up and as the UK economy improved all signs were that Carney and co were creeping towards an increase in the not too distant future. However, with the economic uncertainty unleashed around Brexit, all such bets are now off. The UK is on a rollercoaster of a ride for the foreseeable future.”
'Wait and see' on #BOE Bank rate seems sensible given lack of firm data post-#euref but doubt if picture much clearer next month
— John Philpott (@JobsEconomist) July 14, 2016
Bank of England sends very clear message to Philip Hammond: “It’s your job to sort out the economy; we’ve done our bit”
— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) July 14, 2016
Financial market expectations vs actual Bank Rate - updated. No change has been really hard to predict. pic.twitter.com/4G44WGLdm4
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) July 14, 2016
Full statement from the Bank of England:
At its meeting ending on 13 July 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%, with one member voting for a cut in Bank Rate to 0.25%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.
Committee members made initial assessments of the impact of the vote to leave the European Union on demand, supply and the exchange rate.
In the absence of a further worsening in the trade-off between supporting growth and returning inflation to target on a sustainable basis, most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August. The precise size and nature of any stimulatory measures will be determined during the August forecast and Inflation Report round.
Financial markets have reacted sharply to the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union.
Since the Committee’s previous meeting, the sterling effective exchange rate has fallen by 6%, and short-term and longer-term interest rates have declined. Reflecting the fall in the level of sterling, financial market measures of inflation expectations have risen moderately at short-term horizons, but only to around historical averages, and have fallen slightly at longer horizons.
Markets have functioned well, and the improved resilience of the core of the UK financial system and the flexibility of the regulatory framework have allowed the impact of the referendum result to be dampened rather than amplified.
Official data on economic activity covering the period since the referendum are not yet available. However, there are preliminary signs that the result has affected sentiment among households and companies, with sharp falls in some measures of business and consumer confidence.
Early indications from surveys and from contacts of the Bank’s Agents suggest that some businesses are beginning to delay investment projects and postpone recruitment decisions. Regarding the housing market, survey data point to a significant weakening in expected activity. Taken together, these indicators suggest economic activity is likely to weaken in the near term.
Twelve-month CPI inflation was 0.3% in May and remains well below the 2% inflation target. Measures of core inflation have been stable at a little over 1%. The shortfall in headline inflation is due predominantly to unusually large drags from energy and food prices, which are expected to attenuate over the next year. In addition, the sharp fall in the exchange rate will, in the short run, put upward pressure on inflation as the prices of internationally traded commodities increase in sterling terms, and as importers pass on increases in their costs to domestic prices.
Looking further forward, the MPC made clear in its May Inflation Report, and again in the minutes of its June meeting, that a vote to leave the European Union could have material implications for the outlook for output and inflation.
The Committee judges that a range of influences on demand, supply and the exchange rate could lead to a significantly lower path for growth and a higher path for inflation than in the central projections set out in the May Report.
The Committee will consider over the coming period how the outlook for the economy has changed in light of the referendum result and will publish its new forecast in its forthcoming Inflation Report on 4 August.
The MPC is committed to taking whatever action is needed to support growth and to return inflation to the target over an appropriate horizon.
To that end, most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August. The Committee discussed various easing options and combinations thereof.
The exact extent of any additional stimulus measures will be based on the Committee’s updated forecast, and their composition will take account of any interactions with the financial system.
Against that backdrop, at its meeting ending on 13 July, the majority of MPC members judged it appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy unchanged at present. Gertjan Vlieghe preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.