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CPI inflation rate rises back up above 0% again
Inflation rose slightly in July, moving to 0.1%, after it had fallen flat again in June.
The latest Consumer Prices Index report was published this morning by the Office for National Statistics.
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It came down in June from 0.1% in the year to May 2015 when the period of deflation experienced in the UK came to a halt. Before that, there had been a 0.1% fall in the year to April 2015.
CPIH (not a National Statistic) grew by 0.4% in the year to July 2015, up from 0.3% in June 2015.
The ONS reported today: "The CPI 12-month rate (the amount prices change over a year) between July 2014 and July 2015 stood at 0.1%.
"In the year to July 2015, food prices fell by 2.7% and prices of motor fuels fell by 11.4%. These 2 groups have provided some of the largest downward contributions to the 12-month rate during 2015.
"In July 2015, the food and motor fuels groups in total reduced the CPI 12-month rate by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Historically, price movements for these products have been among the main causes of inflation."
Adam Chester, head of economic research and market strategy at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “This morning’s UK CPI numbers defied expectations that plummeting oil prices and a strong pound could push headline inflation back into negative territory in July.
“While the headline rate of inflation ticked up from 0.0% to 0.1%, the 'core' rate jumped from 0.8% to 1.2% - its highest for five months. The stronger-than expected outturn was largely due to stronger contributions from education, restaurants and hotels, and clothing and footwear - with the latter reflecting less aggressive summer discounting.
"The surprise rise, especially in the core rate, has led to a knee-jerk spike higher in the pound. and reaffirmed market expectations that UK interest rates could rise in the first half of 2016.
“The pound is currently trading nearly a cent higher against both the euro and US dollar, at around 1.4150 and 1.5650, respectively.
“While the Bank of England is unlikely to read too much into one month’s data, the pickup in the core rate is a timely reminder that not all indicators of inflation are pointing south.”
Azad Zangana, senior European economist at Schroders, said: "Although the rate of inflation remains very low, the latest figures did surprise to the upside as the consensus was for no change.
"Food and energy price inflation continue to drag the figures lower, caused by the slump in global commodity prices.
"However, once these are stripped out, core inflation was recorded at 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.8% year-on-year in June, and higher than consensus expectations of 0.9%.
"The latest inflation figures show that lower food and energy prices inflation are masking early signs of an increase in domestic inflation.
"Overall, the latest inflation figures show signs of a healthy economy that is enjoying the dividends from lower global commodity prices. The Bank of England has started to question how long interest rates can remain at current record-low levels, but in our view, is unlikely to hike rates before CPI inflation returns to at least 1%, which may not happen before the second quarter of 2016."