Death of early retirement forecast by 2029
Analysts have forecast the death of early retirement by 2029.
An assessment of the latest Office for National Statistics employment figures has concluded that there would be no people defined as retired in the 16 to 64 age bracket by the end of the 2020s.
This is due to a continual decline since the population of early retirees peaked at 1.6m in August 2011, hitting less than 1.2m in the latest figures, according to Aviva’s analysis.
Aviva’s analysis projects the 50+ age group will hit 10m in 2018, and become the biggest cohort in May 2024, representing more than 1-in-3 workers.
Some 9.74m workers aged 50+ are now in employment, the ONS found. This is the biggest number since records began in 1992 and represents almost a third of the UK’s employment workforce – up from a fifth in 1992.
And researchers said that early retirement amongst women was falling seven times faster than men.
The retired cohort of women in the 16-64 age group has fallen dramatically by 35%, from a peak of 1.11m in 2008 to 0.72m today.
The retired cohort of men amongst the same age group has fallen by only 5% over the same period, from 0.45m to 0.42m.
This decline amongst women has largely been driven by the increase in their state pension age, analysts said. Since 2010, the women’s state pension age has been rising from 60, to bring it in line with men. It is projected to reach parity with men, at 65, by 2018. The state pension ages for both women and men will then rise to 67 by 2028.
Alistair McQueen, savings and retirement manager at Aviva said: “When it comes to funding our longer lives in retirement, we have two options – save more or work longer. For many, the best solution will probably be a mix of the two.
“Auto-enrolment into workplace pensions encourages us to save more, and it is encouraging to see over six million new pension savers have joined the system since it was introduced in 2012.
“Our analysis suggests that we are also working longer. Over 50s will become the leading group of workers within the decade, and the idea of “early retirement” could be relegated to the dustbin of history if recent trends continue.
“The change in working lives is most exaggerated amongst women. There is a responsibility on all concerned to support all workers – women and men – by adapting to this new, longer working life.”