Financial services’ confidence in UK lowest since 2012
The financial services sector’s confidence in the UK’s economic prospects has slipped to its lowest level since 2012, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI).
Potential loss of ‘passporting’, the ability of UK firms and planners to transact business across the EU, was one of a number of concerns.
Of over 600 respondents to the CISI’s online survey, 48% were less optimistic about the outlook for the UK than 10 months ago with Brexit fallout a major concern. However some 32% felt more optimistic with 20% unchanged. The CISI confidence indicator (sum of positives less sum of negatives) was -16% compared to 6% in January 2016.
The survey was conducted from 25 August-22 November 2016. There were 58 comments left by respondents, 63% of which contained the word “Brexit”. The CISI has 40,000 members including Financial Planners, Paraplanners and wealth managers. It merged with the Institute of Financial Planning a year ago.
Concerns raised by respondents included the drop in the value of sterling, passporting implications, quantitative easing and Article 50.
A minority of respondents left comments but many were positive or balanced about Brexit. They included:
• “The UK has the capacity to capitalise on many opportunities from a drastic and changing situation. The Blair years demonstrated this. I’m very optimistic for the future of this country.”
• Brexit will provide some short-term pain but in the long run, considering the rather likely collapse of the EU in the near future, we will be a much stronger economy.”
• “We shouldn’t have left.”
• “The implications on passporting financial services concerns me.”
• “The Bank of England is behind the curve. The UK doesn’t need QE. There’s no recession. Brexit is political, not economic.”
• “The removal of uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum and the terribly inadequate political commentary which was typical of the campaign process, is a net positive, so marginally I’m more optimistic. I was confident in the UK’s economy to compete and be resilient in the global marketplace before the referendum and so did not fear an exit from the EU…I do feel more certain of that belief today.”
Simon Culhane, CISI chief executive said: “There is no denying that Brexit has affected the industry’s confidence in the UK economy, generating concerns in particular on the issues of passporting and the drop in sterling. The outcome of -16% for confidence is low. The recent result of the US Presidential election as a factor has hardly been mentioned by respondents but it may be too soon to for the effect of this result to come through in market sentiment.”
Respondents were asked to compare how they felt about the UK economy six months ago. The last time the CISI survey reflected a negative outcome was in autumn 2012 when the comparative figure was -1%.
The CISI has conducted the poll every six months since spring 2012, with the current figure reflecting economic confidence during a 10 month period. The confidence level expressed peaked in autumn 2013, with a sum total of 54%.