Tuesday, 13 May 2014 10:22
Invesco's Read says interest rates could rise in 2015 in US and UK
Paul Read, co-head of fixed interest at Invesco Perpetual, says UK and US interest rates could rise in 2015 but he believes that any increases will be "modest."
He said: "It's possible to see interest rates go up here and in the US next year but it will probably be pretty modest."
Mr Read also said it would be probably two more years before the bond markets in Europe returned to what he called "normal" after the huge problems with European government and bank debt in the past six years.
Mr Read opened the 2014 Morningstar Investment Conference in London today in front of nearly 400 delegates and joked that: "I feel like I've been invited to the conference when there is no value left in my markets."
The 2014 Morningstar Investment Conference is supported by the Institute of Financial Planning with many Financial Planners attending and some speaking at the event which has attracted a 450 attendees this year. IFP chief executive Steve Gazzard said that the IFP was delighted to support "this leading investment conference."
Mr Read said that economic growth and inflationary pressures in the UK and US would potentially lead to a rise in bank base rates on both sides of the Atlantic next year but at the same time there remained serious deflationary risks in countries such as Spain and Italy where economic conditions were more challenging.
"Deflation is a big problem in Europe and it's really bad news for Spain and Italy if it kicks in. People are tired of austerity and unless we get growth it's going to be hard to stabilise things. In Europe there are still a lot of deflationary pressures."
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One key theme among investors was the appetite for income at lower risk but this was getting harder to achieve.
"There is massive demand for income out there," he said. Despite this, finding income was getting harder as European governments and banks restored their credit ratings and had no need to issue such high yields as during the peak of the debt crisis.
"Two years ago we were buying Spanish bonds and getting 6 or 7 per cent, now we don't really own that much and it's at 3 per cent."
He said another key issue in bond markets was the loss of $750bn dollars in relatively safe income.
This had created a "desperation" for safe income but it was difficult to find this in current markets with 80 per cent of bonds in Europe offering a yield of less than 5 per cent.
Despite this he had been surprised by the strength of the bond markets but added a word of warning: "We've got to be near the end of the bull market in bonds."
The two day Morningstar Investment Conference 2014 is taking place at the Park Plaza Riverbank Hotel in London.
He said: "It's possible to see interest rates go up here and in the US next year but it will probably be pretty modest."
Mr Read also said it would be probably two more years before the bond markets in Europe returned to what he called "normal" after the huge problems with European government and bank debt in the past six years.
Mr Read opened the 2014 Morningstar Investment Conference in London today in front of nearly 400 delegates and joked that: "I feel like I've been invited to the conference when there is no value left in my markets."
The 2014 Morningstar Investment Conference is supported by the Institute of Financial Planning with many Financial Planners attending and some speaking at the event which has attracted a 450 attendees this year. IFP chief executive Steve Gazzard said that the IFP was delighted to support "this leading investment conference."
Mr Read said that economic growth and inflationary pressures in the UK and US would potentially lead to a rise in bank base rates on both sides of the Atlantic next year but at the same time there remained serious deflationary risks in countries such as Spain and Italy where economic conditions were more challenging.
"Deflation is a big problem in Europe and it's really bad news for Spain and Italy if it kicks in. People are tired of austerity and unless we get growth it's going to be hard to stabilise things. In Europe there are still a lot of deflationary pressures."
{desktop}{/desktop}{mobile}{/mobile}
One key theme among investors was the appetite for income at lower risk but this was getting harder to achieve.
"There is massive demand for income out there," he said. Despite this, finding income was getting harder as European governments and banks restored their credit ratings and had no need to issue such high yields as during the peak of the debt crisis.
"Two years ago we were buying Spanish bonds and getting 6 or 7 per cent, now we don't really own that much and it's at 3 per cent."
He said another key issue in bond markets was the loss of $750bn dollars in relatively safe income.
This had created a "desperation" for safe income but it was difficult to find this in current markets with 80 per cent of bonds in Europe offering a yield of less than 5 per cent.
Despite this he had been surprised by the strength of the bond markets but added a word of warning: "We've got to be near the end of the bull market in bonds."
The two day Morningstar Investment Conference 2014 is taking place at the Park Plaza Riverbank Hotel in London.
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