Schroders’ CIO sees opportunities for brave investors
Schroders’ chief investment office Johanna Kyrklund says some market opportunities may be emerging but are for “experienced swimmers only.”
Ms Kyrklund says after the dramatic stock market falls of the last few weeks, valuations are looking “more appealing.”
However, she and other experts at Schroders believe there is a substantial risk of a prolonged recession and investors should remain cautious and ready for significant volatility.
In comments on Friday, she said: “Valuations may be looking far more attractive than a few weeks ago, but this is a market for experienced swimmers only.
“The sea will remain stormy, but under the surface opportunities are beginning to emerge.”
She said part of the reason why the market tumble has been so “breathtaking” is because shares began the Coronavirus outbreak at such expensive levels, particularly in the US.
Since its peak on 19 February, the US S&P500 index has fallen 26.6%, as of 12 March.
Markets picked up on Friday 13 March but fell again early today with the FTSE100 down over 6% by mid-morning.
She said according to Schroders’ statistical models shares are now priced in for a technical recession.
Schroders’ chief economist Keith Wade said the Coronavirus crisis had made him re-assess his outlook for the world economy and he believes the potential for a long term recession is substantial.
He said: “Monetary and fiscal tools are weak in the face of the virus and until the outbreak is under control the tail risk of a prolonged slump remains high.”
Ms Kyrklund believes markets will remain volatile for the time being, shifting up and down significantly at regular intervals.
While a technical recession will mean a flat corporate earnings for the year a longer term economic slump would likely cause corporate earnings to decline further, suggesting another 10% downside to stock markets, accompanied by a “great deal of volatility,” she said.