Friday, 10 May 2013 09:36
Thinktank predicts GDP growth of 0.8 per cent
GDP growth for the three months ending in April is estimated to have increased to 0.8 per cent, according to a national thinktank.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has forecast that growth will increase from 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March.
However underlying growth could be weaker than figures suggest.
It said: "The base effect from the weak level of output in January 2013 has inflated the quarterly rate of growth in both the production sector and the broader economy in the three months to April."
The figure in March was better than forecasters had expected and meant Britain avoided a 'triple-dip' recession. NIESR criticised these figures though for drawing attention away from continued weak economic growth.
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"Much of the attention focused on the avoidance of a 'triple-dip' rather than another quarter of relatively weak economic growth. Revisions to the data mean it is increasingly unclear whether there was even a 'double-dip'.
"Obsessing about a couple of minute fails in output distracts us from the clear trend: that of a stagnating economy," it said.
Over the year, growth would be 0.9 per cent and then increase to 1.5 per cent in 2014.
Inflation would rise above three per cent but fall back to 2.3 per cent next year.
It said the recession was over but that a period of depression, where output is depressed beyond its previous peak in early 2008, would continue until 2015.
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The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has forecast that growth will increase from 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March.
However underlying growth could be weaker than figures suggest.
It said: "The base effect from the weak level of output in January 2013 has inflated the quarterly rate of growth in both the production sector and the broader economy in the three months to April."
The figure in March was better than forecasters had expected and meant Britain avoided a 'triple-dip' recession. NIESR criticised these figures though for drawing attention away from continued weak economic growth.
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"Much of the attention focused on the avoidance of a 'triple-dip' rather than another quarter of relatively weak economic growth. Revisions to the data mean it is increasingly unclear whether there was even a 'double-dip'.
"Obsessing about a couple of minute fails in output distracts us from the clear trend: that of a stagnating economy," it said.
Over the year, growth would be 0.9 per cent and then increase to 1.5 per cent in 2014.
Inflation would rise above three per cent but fall back to 2.3 per cent next year.
It said the recession was over but that a period of depression, where output is depressed beyond its previous peak in early 2008, would continue until 2015.
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