UK economy to weaken but don't blame Brexit - 7IM's Justin
Justin Urquhart Stewart, director and co-founder of investment provider 7IM, said that the UK economy was weakening and the economic cycle - and not Brexit - was the main culprit although he agreed Brexit had unnerved international investors.
In a keynote speech to the CISI Annual Financial Planning: 'Brexit and Trump: Should we be losing sleep', he said that despite the doommongers many economies around the world were either growing or in recovery. Overall the economic prospects were positive, Brexit or not.
He said too many pundits and media experts had blamed Brexit for the UK's economic drop in confidence but he said the weakening this year and next was as much down to the stage we were in the economic cycle as it was on Brexit. Overall the world economy, including the UK, was in decent shape, he said.
He said: "The global economy is in good shape. The big picture is much better than it was." He said even the Eurozone economies were starting to show growth in most places and China was stabilising.
Speaking on the final third day of the CISI-IFP Annual Financial Planning Conference at Celtic Manor Resort in Wales, Mr Urquhart Stewart said in the US unemployment was low and the economy was growing even without quantitative easing. The figures overall from America were good with consumer confidence at a 12 month high, he said.
Mr Urquhart Stewart said Britain may be in a "mess" politicially but there were many opportunities as Britain remained an important manufacturing centre and economic power "despite what the media reported", and was also one of the world's most entrepreneurial economies with hundreds of thousands of businesses set up each year.
He said, however, that while the UK was still attracting inwards investment there was no doubt Brexit had unnerved some overseas investors.
He said: "People are being put off the UK because we haven't made our minds up...The British economy is still moving but it's weakening."
He added there were risks ahead. Key risks, he said, included: the eurozone needing reform (he predicted the Euro would ultimately fail), China going through "a change of life" as it moved away from heavy reliance on manufacturing and the UK suffering from "Brexit nerves."
For Financial Planners he said the key was to remain calm and keep investors invested as the risks of being out of the markets were higher than staying invested although asset allocation would be key.
He said planners would see some storms but being "broadly spread" was the best defence.
In terms of consumers, he said more needed to be done to improve investor education as this was the key to rebuilding confidence in investing.
He said: "We need to rebuild investment confidence, realistic confidence, not stupid confidence and it starts at schools."